The League: Strength and Weaknesses Heading into 2021

Like the assassination of Franz Ferdinand sparking the events that would lead to World War I, the wheels have been set in motion for the next champion of The League following the draft on Saturday March 28, 2021. Dollars were spent and groans were audible throughout the four-hour affair, as the twelve owners filled out their 26-man roster.

In the end, besides owner Danny Flight being more aware of all the players still in the major leagues (and no longer hungry), no team is facing opening day without a glaring weakness or a dominant strength. Some teams have more of the former than others, and similarly some of have more of the latter than others.

In this post, to understand how each team is situated as we stand on the precipice of another season, all teams will be evaluated under a format of: Strength, Weakness, Best Pick, and Worst Pick.

Dynasty Machine

Strength: Offense. All of it. The reigning champ stock piled more bats to add to his already top three ranked hitters. It won’t be a matter of if one of Dynasty Machines players wins the MVP in real life, but which one. He has built a team with speed, power, and a strong eye. He is in the cat bird seat for the title.

Weakness: Starting pitching. Is this a closer project? No. But it sure looks like it based on the limited dollars spent and roster spots filled for starting pitchers.

Luis Castillo is the anchor of the staff, but this anchor is tied to boat of starting pitchers that more resembles a dingy than a speedboat. Urquidy and Civale have some upside and are playing for teams with a heritage of developing arms. Yet, those two are better pitchers if they were your 4th and 5th options, not the 2nd and 3rd choices — given Urquidy’s control/homer issues and Civale’s dip in velocity last year for a guy who already doesn’t pound the zone.

Best Pick: This is a tie. Dominic Smith and Kyle Schwarber for both under $10 ($8 and $4, respectively). Spending $12 on a projected collective 55 home runs is a bargain.

Worst Pick: Not a lot in this draft, but Amir Garret for $16 for a team that is not really projected to win a lot of games (79 to 83) and for someone that does not have the closer position locked up is the worst pick on this team: https://www.mlb.com/news/reds-closer-situation-update.

Sir Hiss

Strength: Dongs, and a lot of them. He has six guys with more than 30 dingers projected. CJ Cron is not projected to hit 30 taters, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he not only eclipses 30, but also 40 — considering he gets to hit in the comfy confines of Coors Field. Gary Sanchez may crush Sir Hiss’s OBP, but Gary Sanchez will also crush a few round trippers as well.

Weakness: Steals. Outside of Trevor Story, there isn’t much proven speed on this team. Wouldn’t be surprised if Sir Hiss doesn’t become a seller of saves for steals as the season gets going.

Best Pick: Nelson Cruz for $9. An old guy, but relative to other sources of home runs in the DH spot (or elsewhere), its not a bad price

Worst Pick: Spending a combined $17 on Boston Red Sox late inning bullpen may not be the best use of dollars, given that Barnes has a bit of a long-ball issue and Ottavino likes to hand out free passes. And now it has come to light that Barnes had a false positive COVID-19 test.

Wyld Stallyns

Strength: Offense, most of it. Outside of Dynasty Machine this may be the most well-rounded offense. Lots of power and speed, and with two guys projected to be near a 400 OBP (New York Mets Nimmo and the Houston Astrisks Bregman).

Weakness: Too many guys on the same team. It was as if Kev was not aware that all these guys were on the same team in real life, as Kev as three key hitters on the Astros, two on the Mets, and two on the Padres. If those teams mash and win a lot of games, Kev could dominate. But the lack of diversity might be a concern.

Honorable mention for saves, as Kev only has one guy with more than 10 saves projected. And Will Smith (the pitcher, not the rapper/actor) has Chris Martin (the pitcher, not the front man of Coldplay) looking over his shoulder.

Best Pick: Tommy Pham for $11. A potential 20–20 guy with good OBP is not a bad buy for $11 bones.

Worst Pick: Will Smith for $23. Spending that much for a guy who didn’t record a save in all of 2020 and has legitimate competition is not the best use of dollars.

Dilrose FantasyBaseball

Strength: Not the owners real life baseball catching skills, that’s for sure.

As for fantasy, the Dilrose club has a strong pair of aces to lead his starting pitching staff in Cole and Giolito. The rest of the pitching staff has some good value guys like Hendricks and Greinke. And like any value stock there is some downside risk to these names, but the price was cheap.

Corbin is another bargain bin pitcher, and if he returns to form it could add a legit third ace to this club. Yet, he would need to change things around from a poor 2020 where his fastball lost two ticks in velocity, and (perhaps relatedly) his slider was significantly less effective based on Swinging K metrics.

Weakness: Bullpen. Diaz and Jansen are top tier closers but there is no assurance that they will be closing games at the end of the season. After that, Dilrose has a fringe closer on one of the worst teams in baseball (Baltimore) and often-troubled Emmanuel Clase who hasn’t pitched since 2019 after a suspension for using Boldenone.

Best Pick: Zack Greinke for $5. Greinke is still a top-25 pitcher and is on a good team that should allow him to win a few games alongside some supportive K and WHIP numbers (178K and 1.12 WHIP projected), while throwing less than 60-MPH.

Worst Pick: Andrew Benintendi for $11. Has not put up a fantasy relevant season since 2018, and has had issues staying healthy. The slow start in spring training is not helping his case (4-for-21).

FC Union Somerville

Strength: Power. Six guys are projected to hit more than 30 bombs in 2021, anchored by Judge, Gallo, and Hoskins.

Weakness: Starting pitching. Amari’s pitching has more red lettering next to them than a Republican Congressman running for re-election. And the only legit pitcher he does have healthy is Clayton Kershaw, a pitcher who has missed time every year for the last three years and has a health grade rating of F by Baseball HQ.

Best Pick: Joc Pederson at $2. The power stroke at this cost is a good bargain, plus there weren’t many other good picks to choose from.

Worst Pick: Starling Marte for $29. The stolen base numbers are likely to be there, but the power from Marte subsided last year. On the whole, Marte saw his OPS fall from 845 to 770 while his power metrics sagged. Another 20/20 season is unlikely and Amari is paying for past performance.

Catahoulas Baseball Club

Strength: Starting pitching. Shane Bieber, Lance Lynn, and Dylan Bundy are a formidable trio of aces to lead the Houlas squad. And if Kluber can return to anywhere close to of his past form, this becomes a hard rotation to fight with. The last piece is Sixto, who was recently optioned to the Marlins alternate site. Yet, him going to the alternate site is more about getting him ready for the season, and not due to injury.

Weakness: Kind of a big one, getting on-base. As of right now, the starting line-up has six guys with a projected OBP of less than 340. And there is no respite from the bench, as there are three more players there with OBP projections below 330. The Houlas pitching staff may keep guys off bases, and his hitters may also stay off the base paths too — unfortunately.

Best Pick: Will Myers at $7. Myers crushed the ball when he made contact, posting a barrel rate and xwOBA that both ranked in the 93rd percentile. We also saw him slash his strikeout rate down to a digestible 25.7% after it ballooned to 34.2% in 2019. There could be some small sample size effect here, but he plays in a loaded line-up and is off to a hot spring, hitting .415 (17-for-41) with five homers, 11 RBI and a 13/2 K/BB ratio. For $7, this is a great bargain — especially when compared to the $11 for Benintendi.

Worst Pick: Daniel Bard for $14. Great story from last year, a remarkable turnaround for a pitcher who completely lost it in what should have been his prime and essentially had to give up pitching because he was such a danger to hitters; he hit seven of the 18 he faced (walking nine others) in A-ball in 2014 — sounds like the owner of the Houlas own pitching experience in the Braves League. Last year aside, it was one year and the Rockies are not likely to win many games this year.

Blazin’ Buffalo Chickens

Strength: Runs and Ribbies. The Buff Chicks have three guys with more than 100 projected runs and three guys with more than 100 projected RBI, led by Freddie Freeman in both.

Weakness: Depth. Danny has piled up a few prospects on his bench that will leave him with little roster flexibility during the season. Yet, the prospects are darn good ones so he will have some big decisions to make. If I were Benny, I would be keeping an eye on the health of Danny’s starters.

Best Pick: Not only the best pick by the Buff Chicks, but also the best pick of the draft: Marcel Ozuna for $26. I wouldn’t expect another 338 BA season from him, but he mashed last year by registering among the game’s best in terms of barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage, and average exit velocity. The latter is likely to continue, and for $26 bones that’s not a bad price.

Worst Pick: Rafael Montero for $20. The presumed closer for the Mariners that has done nothing to make his case this spring, allowing nine runs — six earned — over 7 2/3 total frames. This is also his third team in as many years, a trend that usually doesn’t bread confidence.

Dees Nuts

Strength: Getting on-base. Everyone of the teams current starters is projected to have an OBP over 350, led by Mike Trout’s expected 432 OBP. With such high on-base figures, there are two guys (Trout and Turner) with more than 100 expected runs scored.

Weakness: Pitching is not overly strong, but the one weakness right now might be actually not fielding a complete team. The Nuts are without a catcher. While the backstop position is never that sorely relied on, not having one at all is a concern. All of which speaks to the lack of depth on the team, as there are six bench spots filled by prospects who are unlikely to register more than 200 at-bats this season.

Best Pick: Lourdes Gurriel Jr for $3. Had his best year ever last year, so the small sample size alert is up. However, he improved his contact rate and also made more in the way of hard contact, so his improvement in batting average was mostly deserved. Given that Dilrose paid $11 for Benintendi, $3 for Gurriel is a great pick.

Worst Pick: Jeff McNeil for $26. An uninspiring player that doesn’t do anything that particularly well or poor. The positional flexibility helps, but his power numbers are not there and he doesn’t swipe any bags. He is the proverbial equivalent of a 4-iron off the tee in golf. Just gets you out there, and that's about it — and no one overpays or gets excited for a 4-iron off the tee.

RD izzo

Strength: Speed. RD has seven guys with more than 10 steals projected, led by Jose Ramirez’s 27 steals. And if this is the year for Byron Buxton to finally live up to the hype, the expected 20 steals could be 30 — or more.

Weakness: Bullpen. At first blush it looks ok, but after you take a second look you realize its made up of a guy who is suspended to start the season and has trouble staying on the field over the last few years (Chapman), and another guy (Melancon) that has two other guys (Pomeranz and Pagan) nipping at his heels.

Best Pick: There was really no jump off the page value pick here. The one that could be, provided RD platoons him correctly, is German Marquez for $2. Through four-plus big league seasons, he has a career ERA more than a full run-and-a-half higher at Coors (5.10) than on the road (3.51), proving that the mile-high ballpark can thwart even the soundest skill sets. Marquez’s skill set is excellent too. He combines a 95-mph fastball with a plus slider and arguably the game’s best curveball. Those skills are probably his ticket to a return to the 200-strikeout threshold in 2021.

Worst Pick: Aroldis Chapman for $31. Suspended to start the season and just an all around bad guy.

Saucy Tortugas

Strength: Speed. There are eight guys projected to have more than 10 steals in 2021, with seven of those players currently in the starting lineup for the Tortugas.

Weakness: Have to be careful here as I do not want to incur the wrath of TortugaNation. Yet, the starting pitching could use some help. There is no true definable Ace on this staff. Blake Snell operated under an innings limit last year and has not looked like his former CY Young self in a while. Zack Wheeler has had his bright spots, but his declining K-rate is a concern.

Best Pick: Carlos Correa at $11. A dirt bag unlike any other, yet if he is able to arrest the decline in his skills from the 2020 regular season and hit like he did in the 2020 post-season, this will be a great pick. The Tortugas want to win, and will overlook character flaws such as being a blatant and unapologetic liar and cheat.

Worst Pick: Craig Kimbrel for $11. Craig is unlikely to be the closer long-term in Chicago and that $11 is not well spent. Up until March 29, he had surrendered nine earned runs in his previous 5 2/3 exhibition frames.

Benny 4 The League

Strength: Starting pitching. In the second year of his expansion franchise Benny has a formidable starting rotation in McCullers, Scherzer, Gallen, Sale, and Pleasac if all things break right for Benny— especially Sale coming back. McCullers may get a few CY Young votes this year.

Weakness: Roster depth. As an expansion team, Benny is still building. Over the course of the season it may make sense for Benny to trade off high priced guys for more upside and depth in return. He does have the beginnings of solid infield foundation with Bichette and Hayes.

Best Pick: Dylan Moore for $2. A top 5 second basemen with outfield eligibility. The utilityman played seven positions again in 2020, but this time his bat came around with an 855 OPS, eight home runs and 12 stolen bases. Right now he is projected to have a 20/20 season and could have as many as five positions eligible.

Worst Pick: The one he didn’t make. Sir Hiss bullied him off the blocks on Nelson Cruz and that is the perfect pick for Benny, as he can flip him later in the season for prospects and continue to build his foundation.

BandBox Baseball Club

Strength: Pitching depth. There are six guys with a projected win total over 9, and six with an ERA under 4. Four pitchers are also projected to have more than 170 strikeouts. One of these pitchers is Stephen Strasburg, who, if he returns to his 2019 form, could be a strong anchor to this deep rotation.

Weakness: Bullpen. There is not one reliever on the team with a defined closer role. The after draft addition of Chad Green gives the team their only reliever that could be closing games on opening day. The BandBoxer’s will likely be buyers of saves during the season. Honorable mention for shortstop, as the team only has Haseong Kim — a foreign prospect with good skills but hasn’t played a game in the majors before.

Best Pick: A top-10 outfielder for $21 with 40 home run potential and the ability to score 100 runs, combined with 350-plus OBP. And Happ is now batting 313 with a 1030 OPS through 13 games (39 plate appearances) this spring. He is also scheduled to bat leadoff for the offensively minded Cubs.

Worst Pick: Matt Olson at $44. The pick itself is good, the price is a lot though — considering where other first basemen went in the draft (Goldschmidt at $24, Rizzo at $21, Jose Abreu at $22, and Dominic Smith at $8). While Olson is projected to outproduce all of those mentioned, the dollar savings on a relative basis could have allowed the BandBoxers to spend money on an everyday upper tier shortstop.

Looking Ahead

There are a lot of twists and turns throughout every baseball season. And a season during an economic and humanitarian recovery will likely have its fair share of unpredictable one-offs. Having said that, the business of projections is booming and based on the above the:

Three teams with the best chance of winning The League are: Dynasty Machine, Sir Hiss, and Wyld Stallyns

Three teams with the best chance of ending up in the bottom three of The League: Benny 4 The League, FC Union Sommerville, and the Catahoulas Baseball Club